If E.T. Rings, Let It Go to Voicemail?

vr_don · 01-28-2010, 01:10 PM

R = Q x δ

Astronomer Ivan Almar suggests the brief formula above might help scientists decide how to tell the world that we are not alone in the universe. It’s a mathematical way of saying that the risk (R) associated with a possible discovery of extraterrestrial life is a combination of the danger of the life if it does exist (Q, which itself is the sum of several other factors such as what sort of life it is and how far it is away) and how likely the claim of its existence is to be true (δ).

It’s not the first time Almar has tried to mathematically quantify the search for extraterrestrial life. He’s one of the authors of the so-called Rio Scale, a formula adopted by the International Academy of Astronautics to calculate the impact of publicly announcing that E. T. exists.

Almar presented his latest formula this week at the Royal Society in London as part of a 2-day conference grandly entitled “The detection of extra-terrestrial life and the consequences for science and society”. But one audience member suggested such a calculation was a waste of time because the public likely wouldn’t accept that they needn’t worry about a claimed detection of alien life simply because a formula indicated a risk of only three out of 10.

Such debates mixing science and speculation dominated the unusual Royal Society event.

- LINK -

Area-51 · 02-02-2010, 09:04 AM

That´s a dumb formula. I don´t see any logic in it. it´s just a statement, you can´t proof any of it, which (for me) doesn´t make it a working formula.

TheNugzMan · 02-03-2010, 05:06 PM

And what exactly is the "Risk" of finding out the greatest news in the history of mankind?

Area-51 · 02-05-2010, 04:51 AM

Right! I don´t see any risk in finding new lifeforms in the universe, it´s just a scientific discovery.

01-28-2010, 01:10 PM	#1
vr_don Investigator Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 195	If E.T. Rings, Let It Go to Voicemail? R = Q x δ Astronomer Ivan Almar suggests the brief formula above might help scientists decide how to tell the world that we are not alone in the universe. It’s a mathematical way of saying that the risk (R) associated with a possible discovery of extraterrestrial life is a combination of the danger of the life if it does exist (Q, which itself is the sum of several other factors such as what sort of life it is and how far it is away) and how likely the claim of its existence is to be true (δ). It’s not the first time Almar has tried to mathematically quantify the search for extraterrestrial life. He’s one of the authors of the so-called Rio Scale, a formula adopted by the International Academy of Astronautics to calculate the impact of publicly announcing that E. T. exists. Almar presented his latest formula this week at the Royal Society in London as part of a 2-day conference grandly entitled “The detection of extra-terrestrial life and the consequences for science and society”. But one audience member suggested such a calculation was a waste of time because the public likely wouldn’t accept that they needn’t worry about a claimed detection of alien life simply because a formula indicated a risk of only three out of 10. Such debates mixing science and speculation dominated the unusual Royal Society event. - LINK -

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02-02-2010, 09:04 AM	#2
Area-51 Investigator Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Germany Posts: 459	That´s a dumb formula. I don´t see any logic in it. it´s just a statement, you can´t proof any of it, which (for me) doesn´t make it a working formula.

02-03-2010, 05:06 PM	#3
TheNugzMan Junior Investigator Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Nor Cal Posts: 52	And what exactly is the "Risk" of finding out the greatest news in the history of mankind?

02-05-2010, 04:51 AM	#4
Area-51 Investigator Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Germany Posts: 459	Right! I don´t see any risk in finding new lifeforms in the universe, it´s just a scientific discovery.